The Forecast page compares your store’s orders and revenue with a forecast built from your own sales on the same days in the past two years. Early in a month, it tells you whether you’re ahead or behind, while there’s still time to do something about it.
Where you see it #
In your WordPress admin, open Tendlio → Inventory, and click Forecast. It’s next to Restock, and it opens on the current month.
How each day is forecast #
For every day, Tendlio looks at the same weekday in the same week of the year, one year ago and two years ago, and expects a mix of what your store sold on those two days, with last year counting more. Matching the week and the weekday means a Saturday is compared with a Saturday, and your busy weeks with the same weeks in the years before.
If one of those two days came before your store’s first sale, only the other year counts. If both did, that day has no forecast.
Read the cards #
Three cards sum up the month: Orders, Revenue and Gross profit. On each card:
- The big number is what you’ve done so far this month, marked Actual so far.
- Expected by now is what the forecast says you’d have done by this point, including the part of today that has already gone by.
- The line under it says Ahead of expected, Behind expected or Roughly as expected, with the difference in percent and in orders or money, for example “Behind expected: -12% (-38)”. It says Roughly as expected when the difference is less than 5%.
- Full month forecast is what the forecast expects for the whole month.
The Gross profit card uses the average margin of your products, as of your last analysis, and its title shows that margin, for example “Gross profit (50.0% margin)”. The margin applies only to what your products sold for. The shipping your customers paid is added in full, and your courier bill isn’t taken off. If most of your products have no cost price yet, a note under the cards says that the margin is mostly the average from your setup. Until at least one product that sells has a cost price, or you’ve set an average margin, the card says Add cost prices to project profit instead.
Read the calendar #
Under the cards, the calendar has a box for each day of the month:
- A finished day shows how many orders you got and how much revenue they brought in, each with how far it landed above or below its forecast, in percent. Under them, “exp.” gives the orders and revenue the forecast expected. The box is green when the day’s revenue reached its forecast, and red when it didn’t.
- Today shows your sales so far (“so far today”) and the forecast for the whole day (“full day”). It has no color, because the day isn’t over.
- A day still to come shows only its forecast.
- A day with nothing to forecast from shows what you sold that day, with no color, or says “no data” if there were no sales.
A small badge in the corner of a day marks a record: your highest-revenue day in the last two years, your busiest day in the last two years by orders, your highest-revenue day this month, or a day whose revenue came in at least one and a half times its forecast. Hover over the badge to see which one it is.
Look at another period #
- The month tabs, Jan to Dec, show any month of this year. For a month that has ended, the cards show the Actual result and what was Expected this month. For a month still to come, they show only the Forecast for this month.
- Year to date shows the three cards for the year so far. Under them, Month by month has a card for each month up to this one, with its revenue, its forecast and the difference in percent and in money. The current month is marked “so far” and compared with what was expected by now.
- Custom range lets you pick the dates. Choose them under From and To, and click Load. You see the three cards for those dates, without the calendar. The range can reach back to the start of the year before last, which is as far as the history Tendlio loads for the Forecast page goes.
When there’s no forecast #
A forecast needs sales from a year or two before. If there are no sales a year back for the period’s dates and none in the period yet, the page says No forecast for this period and that it needs at least a year of order history. If you have sales in the period but none a year back, the page says so and shows your actual sales only. A day gets its forecast once its matching day a year earlier falls on or after your store’s first sale.
What to do with it #
If you’re behind early in a month, you still have time to act: run a promotion, put your best-sellers in front of shoppers, or email your past customers.
Treat a big gap, either way, as a question, not a verdict. The forecast carries what happened in the years before: a one-off spike last year raises this year’s forecast, so you look behind, and a month last year when your best-sellers were sold out lowers it, so you look ahead. Before you act on a big gap, check what happened on those days a year ago.
The forecast mixes last year with the year before, so it tells you whether you’re keeping up with your own pattern, not whether you’re beating last year. To compare this period straight with the same days last year, open Reports → Revenue. For what to order, use the Restock page.
What the numbers count #
- Orders are your online orders with a status that counts as a sale.
- Revenue is what those orders brought in, without the tax you collected and with the shipping your customers paid.
- A partial refund comes off your revenue on the day you issue it, and the order still counts. A fully refunded order drops out of both the revenue and the order count of the day it was placed, so a day that’s already over can change color.
- Canceled, refunded and failed orders never count. By default, completed, processing and on-hold orders do. If your store has on-hold orders or statuses from another plugin, Settings → General → Which orders count as a sale lets you choose.
Additional resources #
- How to decide what to restock and how much to order: what to order, and when products run out.
- Forecast & “runs out in”: the 30-day forecast for each product, worked out the same way.
- What’s in Reports: the Revenue report, against the same days last year.
- Which orders count as a sale
- How to give Tendlio your product costs: the margin behind the Gross profit card.
Frequently asked questions #
Why is every day red this month? #
Each red day took in less revenue than its forecast. Before you read that as a slowdown, check what's different from a year ago: a stockout on your best-sellers, a promotion you ran last year and not this year, or orders in a status that doesn't count as a sale. The Revenue report shows the same days a year ago.
Why is there no forecast for my store? #
The forecast needs sales from the same days a year or two before. A store with less than a year of orders sees its actual sales only, and the forecast appears as the history builds up.
Does the Forecast page count refunds? #
A partial refund comes off your revenue on the day you issue it, and the order still counts. A fully refunded order drops out of both the revenue and the order count.