For every product, Tendlio forecasts how many units it will sell in the next 30 days. From that forecast and your stock, it works out how many days are left before the product runs out.
How the 30-day forecast works #
At each analysis, Tendlio looks at each of the next 30 days and finds the matching day in each of the past two years: the same weekday in the same week of the year. It expects the product to sell what it sold on those days, with last year counting more than the year before. The 30 days added up are the forecast.
A date falls on a different weekday each year, so Tendlio matches the week and the weekday instead. A Saturday is compared with a Saturday, and a busy week of your year with the same week last year.
A few products get a different forecast:
- If your store’s sales history doesn’t reach back two years, or the product is less than two years old, only last year counts.
- A product you listed less than a year ago gets a forecast of at least its average monthly sales since you listed it, because last year covers only part of its life.
- If a product you listed one to two years ago sold nothing on last year’s matching days, for example because it was sold out then, Tendlio forecasts it at its average monthly sales over the last 12 months, as long as it has sold in the last 60 days.
On Products & insights, a ~ in front of a forecast means the product was listed less than 60 days ago, so the forecast is a rough estimate from its recent sales.
The forecast counts sales the same way as Sales/mo: only orders with a status that counts as a sale, without free gifts, and without taking partial refunds off.
How “runs out in” is worked out #
Tendlio divides your stock by the forecast’s daily rate, which is the 30-day forecast divided by 30. With 20 in stock and a forecast of 30 for the next 30 days, the product sells one a day and runs out in 20 days.
Beyond those 30 days, the count assumes the product keeps selling at that daily rate. If a busy season is coming later, the product can run out sooner than the number says, and the 6 mo panel shows the months ahead.
The stock is what you had at your last analysis, so a delivery that arrived since then counts only after the next analysis.
There’s no number of days in three cases:
- The product is sold out already. You see out now instead of a number.
- WooCommerce doesn’t count the product’s stock, because Track stock quantity for this product is off on its Inventory tab.
- The forecast is zero, because the product isn’t expected to sell in the next 30 days.
In the last two cases the Days to OOS column on Products & insights shows a dash, and hovering over it tells you which case it is.
Where you see them #
- Products & insights: the Forecast 30d and Days to OOS columns. Days to OOS is on by default, and Forecast 30d appears once you add it under Columns (the Restock ready set includes it). In Days to OOS, a red number means the product runs out before its supplier could deliver an order you place today, and a yellow number means it runs out within your Stockout warning. A number without a color means the stock lasts longer than that. If you hide the Days to OOS column, the red and yellow day counts show next to the forecast instead.
- The Restock page: the Forecast 30d and Runs out in columns of What’s running low. There, red means the product runs out before its supplier’s lead time, and orange means its order is due within 7 days (the Order within column next to it shows how many).
- A product’s Insights page: the 6 mo panel, under What comes next.
Your supplier’s lead time is the Lead time (days) you set for the supplier on the Suppliers page. For a product with no supplier, or a supplier without a lead time, it’s the Default lead time under Settings → General → Inventory, 14 days unless you’ve changed it. The Stockout warning is in the same section. It shows in Advanced mode, and it’s 30 days unless you’ve changed it.
The Forecast page, next to Restock in the menu, is a different forecast: your whole store’s orders and revenue, day by day, matched the same way. Reading the Forecast page explains it.
The 6 mo panel #
Once the Forecast 30d column is on, the 6 mo button next to each forecast on Products & insights opens the next six months for that product. The product’s Insights page shows the same panel under What comes next, whatever columns you’ve picked.
The panel covers six whole months, starting next month, because the rest of this month belongs to the 30-day forecast. It opens with the product’s Sales/mo, rounded, for example “Right now this product sells about 3 a month.”
If last year had months when the product sold more than that, a table lists the six months:
- Expect to sell: the bigger of the product’s Sales/mo (the panel labels it selling now) and the Sold last year figure for that month. Under each number, selling now or last year tells you which one it is. The months when last year was busier are highlighted.
- Sold last year (same month): what the product sold in that month in the past two years, with last year counting more. For a product with only one year of sales, it’s last year alone, and the panel says so.
If no month last year was busier than the product’s Sales/mo, one line says so and tells you how many to plan for each month. For a product you listed less than a year ago, there’s no last year to compare with, so the panel gives one monthly figure for all six months.
Then the panel reads your stock as it is now, not at the last analysis. It tells you roughly which month the stock runs out in, counting from next month, or that it covers all six months. If the product is sold out, the panel says you have none in stock, and if WooCommerce doesn’t count the product’s stock, the panel says it can’t tell when it would run out. If the product needs more stock, the panel ends with a Restock (suggested: N) button that opens the Restock page.
Why the forecast works this way #
Why a product that sells can have a forecast of zero #
The forecast follows your store’s own year. A product that sold nothing in these weeks last year and the year before gets a forecast of zero, even if it sells well at other times. That’s right for a seasonal product out of its season, and the 6 mo panel shows when its season comes back. A zero can also mean the product was sold out in these weeks last year, so before you rely on a zero, compare it with the product’s Sales/mo.
Why last year counts more #
Last year is closer to how your store sells today, so it counts more. The year before still counts, so one unusual week last year doesn’t set the forecast on its own.
Additional resources #
- Selling pace (Sales/mo)
- How to decide what to restock and how much to order
- Reading the Forecast page: your whole store’s orders and revenue against the forecast, day by day.
- How to set up your suppliers and order from each one: a lead time for each supplier.
- How to set up seasonal detection
- Reorder point formula for WooCommerce
Frequently asked questions #
Why does a product that sells every week show a forecast of 0? #
The forecast follows the same weeks in past years. If the product sold nothing in these weeks then, for example because it was sold out, the forecast is zero. Compare it with the product's Sales/mo and open the 6 mo panel.
Why don't the days change after a delivery? #
The days come from your last analysis. They change after the next one, which Tendlio runs every week, or right away with Re-scan store.
What does the ~ in front of a forecast mean? #
The product was listed less than 60 days ago, so the forecast is a rough estimate from its recent sales.